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EV·Quant

Expectancy and Kelly

Win 60% and still lose money. Size is part of the edge.

Key points

  • Expectancy first, then position size.
  • Kelly is a ceiling, not a dare.
  • Backtests lie when survivors write the brochure.

Related labs

Expectancy Calculator

Do the math before the click. A 60% win rate can still lose money.

Kelly Sizing

Once win rate and payoff are known, how large should the bet be?